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Technological Change and the Future of Warfare, by Michael E. O'Hanlon
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In light of the spectacular performance of American high-technology weapons in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, as well as the phenomenal pace of innovation in the modern computer industry, many defense analysts have posited that we are on the threshold of a revolution in military affairs (RMA). The issue has more than semantic importance. Many RMA proponents have begun to argue for major changes in Pentagon budgetary priorities and even in American foreign policy more generally to free up resources to pursue a transformed U.S. military —and to make sure that other countries do not take advantage of the purported RMA before we do. This book takes a more measured perspective. Beginning with a survey of various types of defense technologies, it argues that while important developments are indeed under way, most impressively in electronics and computer systems, the overall thrust of contemporary military innovation is probably not of a revolutionary magnitude. Some reorientation of U.S. defense dollars is appropriate, largely to improve homeland defense and to take advantage of the promise of modern electronics systems and precision-guided munitions. But radical shifts in U.S. security policy and Pentagon budget priorities appear unwarranted —especially if those shifts would come at the expense of American military engagement in overseas defense missions from Korea to Iraq to Bosnia.
- Sales Rank: #4355956 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Brookings Institution Press
- Published on: 2000-01-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.00" w x 6.30" l, 1.09 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 224 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
"A refreshing voice of sanity on a topic marked by more than the usual amount of overstatement, sophistry, and sheer fantasy." —Kenneth Allard, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 1/3/2001
"O'Hanlon does well to liken the current period of defense innovation to the 1920s, and to underscore the importance of research and experimentation for the future American military. " —Andrew Marshall, Director, Net Assessment, The Pentagon, The Pentagon
"This is an important book that provides a careful and nuanced perspective on trends in military technology and their implications for U.S. policy. O'Hanlon argues that it is not necessary for the Pentagon to invest in a whole new generation of weapons platforms because the mechanical technologies involved are not changing that fast, whereas he does see major change afoot in computers and the ability to network military systems to provide much greater effectiveness at modest cost. " —Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Princeton University
"O'Hanlon's book is a good starting point." —Thomas Hamilton, RAND Corporation, Armed Forces & Society, 7/1/2001
About the Author
Michael E. O'Hanlon is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, where he holds the Sydney Stein Jr. Chair. His recent books include The Future of Arms Control (Brookings, 2005; with Michael A. Levi), Neither Star Wars nor Sanctuary (Brookings, 2004), and Crisis on the Korean Peninsula (McGraw Hill, 2003; with Mike Mochizuki).
Most helpful customer reviews
11 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Puts RMA In Its Place, Smartly--Essential Reading
By Robert David STEELE Vivas
Graciously, and with wicked clarity, the author knocks the so-called Revolution in Military Affairs flat on its back, and then helps it to one knee. His introductory review of the RMA schools of thought (system of systems, dominant battlespace knowledge, global reach, and vulnerability or anti-access or asymmetric), with appropriate notes, is helpful to any adult student. The heart of his book can be distilled down to one chart showing the expected rates of advance in the various technical domains relevant to military operations. Of 29 distinct technical groups across sensors, computers and communications; projectiles, propulsion, and platforms; and other weapons, he finds only two technology areas-computer hardware and computer software-capable of revolutionary change in the foreseeable future. Eight others-chemical sensors, biological sensors, radio communications, laser communications, radio-frequency weapons, nonlethal weapons, and biological weapons-are judged capable of high but not revolutionary advances. All other technical areas, namely those associated with mobility platforms and weaponry itself, are unlikely to develop at anything above a moderate pace. In the course of his discussion of each of these he brings forth the basics of physics and real-world constraints and points out that even the best of our sensors are frustrated by heavy rain and other man-made countermeasures. He correctly evaluates the inability of our existing and planned Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) to keep up with targeting needs, particularly in urban and heavy canopy terrain. He also notes in passing that human intelligence may well prove to be the sustaining element in finding individual people, and that there has been no significant change since World War II in the numbers of troops needed per 1,000 inhabitants-infantry is still the core force. He systematically dismisses a variety of RMA claims, among the most dangerous being that we can afford to stand down many of our forward bases, by pointing out that combat aircraft continue to have short ranges, ground forces continue to require heavy logistics sustainment, ships remain slow to cross oceans, and it continues to be extremely difficult to seize ports and other fixed infrastructure. He concludes the book with a number of budgeting recommendations, both for the USA and for its allies. For the USA he would emphasize communications and computing, the one area truly open to an RMA in the near term. Other areas meriting immediate investments include strategic sea and air lift, the rapid development of a lighter tank and a mine-resistant infantry vehicle, and improvements in naval mine warfare. He supports the National Missile Defense and would sustain more robust RDT&E experimentation. For a major US ally, with a fraction of our funding, he recommends a $15 billion total investment over several years to acquire a thoughtful mix of advanced C4I enhancements including ground stations, a fleet of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), 1000 cruise missiles, 5000 short-range munitions, 500 advanced air to air missiles, a squadron of stealth aircraft, and several batteries of theater missile defense radars and missiles. A very nice listing of major Pentagon acquisition programs supports his recommendation that we economize on major weapons platforms and pursue a high-low mixed strategy, limiting, for example, our procurement of the F-22 and joint strike fighters so as to afford more F-15s and F-16s. Overall this book fulfills its mission of reviewing technologies in relation to the future of warfare, and it provides the reader with a very strong stepping stone for venturing into the literature of defense transformation. Those who would criticize this work for failing to consider the competition or the metrics of evaluation have a point, but only a point-the book does what it set out to do. It evaluates specific technologies in relation to the inflated and often delusional claims of the proponents of the RMA. One book cannot solve all our problems, but it can, as this book does, blow away some of the foggy thinking emanating from the Pentagon and other places where a number of flag officers and their staffs have lost sight of ground truth.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
The Devil in the Details
By Retired Reader
The revolution in military affairs (RMA) movement is a direct outcome of the recognized need to transform the U.S. military to meet the challenges and dangers of a post Cold War world. Although a plethora of books and discussions have been produced by this movement, as this book makes clear, most have been lacking in the essential detailed thinking required to really implement such a revolution. O'Hanlon provides a real service by looking with some care at the four specific components that will be needed for an RMA: 1) improvements in computers and communications (C2); 2) improvements in sensor technology of all sorts; 3) development of lighter, stealthier weapons platforms for all battlefields; and 4) development of new types of weapons such as directed energy systems and space weapons. In O'Hanlon's opinion only C2 developments to date have really lived up to RMA concepts and the other three components have not developed very well at all. Indeed C2 developments have made possible the beginning of an implementation of a sub-set of the RMA, namely Network Centric Warfare. For a detailed discussion on this sub-set this reviewer recommends a book, "The Future of War" by Mark Mandeles (available Amazon.com). O'Hanlon provides the reader with rather good discussions of all four components in this book.
More importantly O'Hanlon argues for something often forgotten in all the generic talk about RMA and that is a need for a grand strategy to guide the Department of Defense (DOD) in the implementation of a true RMA. Such a strategy significantly also could be used to discipline DOD spending and prioritizing current and future military procurements. Equally important he emphasizes the need for a robust military research and development program to produce the components to realize a valid RMA.
O'Hanlon makes no secret of his skepticism of the RMA hypotheses, but at least to this reviewer he appears to be fair and evenhanded in his discussion of the movement.
14 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
like most budget-based analyses -- topical
By A Customer
Michael O'Hanlon's book does more than just fail to add to the literature of RMA [revolution in military affairs] thinking. It obscures.
What should be central to any understanding of the future of warfare and the role that technology and technological change plays in that future is the concept of *competition* -- something O'Hanlon gives almost no attention to.
This is perhaps not surprising in that O'Hanlon is what is called a policy wonk. Budget-based analyses are his bread and butter. Which would be fine if you are dealing with, say, the future of social security.
But when dealing with warfare, understanding technological change means: first, understanding the technology; and second, understanding the competition.
The first is not as easy as it sounds. Understanding technology means understanding measures of effectiveness. Measuring a machine gun by the standards of, for example, an artillery piece, will mean that the machine gun clearly falls short in every category [range, munitions requirements, etc.]. But the US did exactly that during the late 19th and early 20th centuries when considering whether to adopt the machine gun. Seems ridiculous now, of course, but such is the benefit of hindsight. These days, are we measuring the effectiveness of unmanned aerial vehicles by comparing them to aircraft? If we are, is a modern aircraft an appropriate measure of effectiveness?
Second, you have to understand the competition. When a country, such as China or Iran, is developing long-range cruise missile and ballistic missile technology, and can link that technology through commercially available GPS satellites and real-time high resolution satellite imagery, then just how would US forces try to project power in the region if the range of these weapons are of sufficient reach to effectively deny U.S. access to bases near the theater of operations? What types of technology can provide answers to this kind of challenge?
None of these questions are dealt with in O'Hanlon's all-too-topical survey of RMA thinking. You can be enthusiastic or skeptical of whether there is an RMA just around the corner, but budget-based analysis, with a scant overview [and no assessment] of the technology when coupled with a paucity of description concerning current or future competition, just clouds an already loosely-defined field.
Finally, and perhaps most damningly, O'Hanlon assumes that areas with the greatest amount of technological change will automatically produce the greatest amount of change in warfare -- a huge assumption for which he gives no historical justification whatsoever. Indeed, far too many military revolutions were technologically evolutionary in origin, with slow and incremental changes across a broad array of different technologies suddenly affording an RMA -- the German blitzkrieg involved technological change (some rapid, some incremental) involving technologies ranging from internal combustion engines, to radio communications, to parachutes, to changes in muzzle velocity and firespower.
Perhaps worst of all, O'Hanlon gives little attention to the fact that, as with blitzkrieg, most military revolutions are only partly technological -- a huge role in any RMA is played by changes in organizational structure and doctrine.
Yet far too many skeptics of the RMA debate -- O'Hanlon being a good example -- produce the straw-man argument that RMAs only involve technological solutions to military problems, and then such skeptics disingenuously 'knock the argument flat on it's back' by showing how such an argument inevitably has shortcomings. What simplistic tripe!
If skeptics like O'Hanlon would get their facts straight on what an RMA actually involves, they'd have a much harder time dismissing the possibility of a current RMA. But with such blatant omissions, I'm afraid that I can only come to the conclusion that the author is not really analyzing the issue, but grinding an axe.
I give the book one star. It gets one for mentioning RMA schools of thought [which few other books do]. I would give it one for including rates of technological change in different areas [sensors, information, biotechnology, et. al.], but such a metric should actually be taken with a huge grain of salt.
In the end, I found the book to be of little use, adding nothing to the debate...
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